Loyola MD

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	322.0
Current RPI:	322
Expected SOS:	276
Current SOS:	276
Current Record:	8-22
Expected Record:	8-22
Current Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-11
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	347
Expected OOC SOS:	294

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-22	322.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	79-75	L	0%
11-14	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	64-52	L	0%
11-17	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	72-95	L	0%
11-26	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	83-75	L	0%
11-28	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	64-63	L	0%
12-2	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	80-75	L	0%
12-6	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	A	96-71	L	0%
12-9	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	64-77	L	0%
12-21	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	66-62	W	100%
12-23	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	83-71	L	0%
12-29	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	72-63	W	100%
1-2	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	86-75	L	0%
1-5	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	68-65	W	100%
1-8	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	64-57	L	0%
1-11	American (336.0)	Pat	A	76-65	L	0%
1-14	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	83-77	W	100%
1-17	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	70-78	L	0%
1-20	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	77-72	L	0%
1-24	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	88-91	W	100%
1-27	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	79-68	W	100%
1-31	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	64-55	L	0%
2-3	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	57-73	L	0%
2-7	American (336.0)	Pat	H	72-69	W	100%
2-11	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	84-67	L	0%
2-14	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	94-53	L	0%
2-18	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	47-68	L	0%
2-21	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	74-80	L	0%
2-24	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	62-56	L	0%
2-27	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	82-79	W	100%
3-1	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	83-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola MD	Pat	26.52	26.52	23.73	23.73	-13.94	-13.94
Bucknell	Pat	6.05	6.05	70.97	70.97	2.54	2.54
Army	Pat	5.95	5.95	42.31	42.31	-0.91	-0.91
Colgate	Pat	4.53	4.53	55.17	55.17	0.47	0.47
Boston University	Pat	4.47	4.47	46.43	46.43	-0.32	-0.32
Lafayette	Pat	4.45	4.45	28.57	28.57	-1.91	-1.91
Holy Cross	Pat	4.42	4.42	34.48	34.48	-1.37	-1.37
American	Pat	4.40	4.40	17.86	17.86	-2.83	-2.83
Lehigh	Pat	4.39	4.39	51.85	51.85	0.16	0.16
Navy	Pat	4.37	4.37	62.07	62.07	1.05	1.05
Binghamton	AE	1.86	1.86	28.57	28.57	-0.80	-0.80
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.78	1.78	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
UMass Lowell	AE	1.78	1.78	35.71	35.71	-0.51	-0.51
Drexel	CAA	1.78	1.78	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Towson	CAA	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.67	1.67	20.00	20.00	-1.00	-1.00
Fairfield	MAAC	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	1.67	1.67	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Memphis	Amer	1.67	1.67	60.61	60.61	0.35	0.35
Northwestern	B10	1.67	1.67	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Marist	MAAC	0.39	0.39	19.35	19.35	-0.24	-0.24
New Hampshire	AE	0.34	0.34	27.59	27.59	-0.15	-0.15
Albany	AE	0.33	0.33	67.74	67.74	0.12	0.12
UMBC	AE	0.31	0.31	67.74	67.74	0.11	0.11
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.28	0.28	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Siena	MAAC	0.26	0.26	25.00	25.00	-0.13	-0.13
Columbia	Ivy	0.26	0.26	26.92	26.92	-0.12	-0.12
Northeastern	CAA	0.24	0.24	68.75	68.75	0.09	0.09
Cornell	Ivy	0.23	0.23	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Penn	Ivy	0.23	0.23	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Vermont	AE	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
La Salle	A10	0.21	0.21	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.20	0.20	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.19	0.19	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.19	0.19	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
Stony Brook	AE	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.18	0.18	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.17	0.17	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
NJIT	ASun	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01